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vol. 12, nr. 3 (2008)
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Forecast of influence of expected global warming in year 2050 on crop yielding in north-eastern Poland
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Zbigniew Szwejkowski, Ewa Dragańska, Stanisław Suchecki
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Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Warmia and Mazury University Pl. Łódzki 1, 10-720 Olsztyn |
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vol. 12 (2008), nr. 3,
pp. 791-800
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abstract:
The paper presents a study on expected changes of the weather patterns as an effect of global warming in perspective of year 2050 on the crop yielding in north-eastern Poland. The analyses were carried out on the basis of GISS climate scenario, model E, and 300 variants of weather data generated using model WGENK, as well as on local climatic data from the years 1985- 2005. Sensitivity of crops to weather conditions was tested by analysis of regression – data (yields and weather conditions) derived from the years 1985- 2005. The final results were differences between yields of crops determined by weather conditions in specified weather variant (calculated using regression equations) and virtual average for the year 2050, when weather conditions were not considered. Thanks to the diversity of results obtained in the analysis, we may prove that weather conditions in the North-Eastern part of Poland, as a result of future climate change, will turn out to be beneficial or unfavourable. The range of the differences in crop yielding will not involve either especially dramatic or beneficial circumstances for economy.
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keywords:
climate change, crop yielding, north-rastern Poland
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original in:
Polish
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