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vol. 3, nr. 2 (2004)
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Variability of air temperature at Wroc³aw-Swojec meteorogical station in years 1964-2001
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El¿bieta Musia³1, Edward G±siorek1, Marian Stanis³aw Rojek2
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1 Department of Mathematics, University of Agriculture, ul. Grunwaldzka 53, 50-357 Wroc³aw |
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2 Department of Mathematics, University of Agriculture, ul. Grunwaldzka 53, 50-357 Wroc³aw |
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3 Department of Agro-and Hydrometeorology, University of Agriculture, Pl. Grunwaldzki 24, 50-364 Wroc³aw |
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vol. 3 (2004), nr. 2,
pp. 333-342
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abstract:
The study contains the description of changes in air temperature based on measurements performed at swojec in years 1964-2001. These changes are measured in separate months, seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter), in warm half-years (IV-IX) and in cold half-years (X-III). Then it was assumed that mean monthly air temperature values from the period 1964-2001 create a time series. A model built for this time series includes essential properties of this process such as linear trend, seasonal variations and random factor. This model allows to forecast air temperature for swojec in years 2002-2022.
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keywords:
air temperature, trend, time series, forecasting
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original in:
Polish
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