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vol. 9, nr. 3 (2007)
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Coolings and warmings of Europe's climate in 18th -21st centuries
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Jerzy Boryczka
, Maria Stopa-Boryczka
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Institute of Climatology, Warsaw University, ul. Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa
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vol. 9 (2007), nr. 3,
pp. 550-570
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abstract:
The objective of the work was to determine the periodicity and trends of change in air temperature in Europe in the time period of the 18th-20th centuries, together with the forecast for the 21st century. Past analyses of long-term surveys (Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Moscow) suggest several air temperature cycles of significant amplitudes. They are ca. 8 and 100 years long, and the planetary cycle lasts for 178.9 years. Spectra and cycles of air temperatures, precipitations, NAO index, and solar activity were calculated based on the "regression sine" method. The dominating period length in the NAO index spectrum, during winter, as well as in the air temperature spectres for Europe, is ca. 8 years. It correlates with cycles of solar activity (8.1 years). The changes of the air temperature in winter and in summer in Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and Moscow in 18th -21st centuries are shown in Figures. 2-9. The coldest winters in Warsaw, with the average temperature from -4°C to -7°C, will occur most likely in the middle of this century: around the year 2050.
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keywords:
Air temperature, Europe, North Atlantic Oscillation, period, forecast, Solar activity
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original in:
Polish
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