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vol. 12, nr. 3 (2008)
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Yield of corn cultivated for grain in Wielkopolska region predicted in regard to ex-pected climate changes
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Ewa Dragańska, Zbigniew Szwejkowski, Monika Panfil
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Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Warmia and Mazury University, Pl. Łódzki 1, 10-720 Olsztyn |
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vol. 12 (2008), nr. 3,
pp. 645-655
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abstract:
The data concerning yielding, growth and development of standard semi-early corn cultivated for grain which were used in the work came from the period of 1991-2005. The independent variables in the investigation of the relationship between weather and yield were determined by values of 24 hour mean temperature, minimum temperature, totals of precipitations as well as totals of total radiation, in every agrophenological period. Only two equations which passed the verifying procedure by the CV test were build. The equation build on the level of sprouting of stigma (R2pred = 0.4) showed that minimum temperatures and totals of solar radiations in the time of sprouting of stigma had significant influence on the quantity of yield. The next equation (R2pred = 0.8) explained the received yield on the time of full ripeness as well as harvest. Increase in totals of precipitations in the period from sprouting of stigma to full ripeness as well as totals of global solar radiation in the period of sowing-germination had a favourable influence on the quantity of yield. Sorted equations were used to estimate possible values of corn yielding with new weather conditions predicted according to the GISS scenario of climate changes, the E model. Also, 300 possible variants of the course weather conditions were generated using the WGENK model. Simulated data showed that the increases of yield from 28% to 50% (estimation made at the time of sprouting of stigma) will be possible if the weather conditions are favourable. If weather conditions are unfa-vourable, a decrease of yield in the range of 37-39% can be expected.
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keywords:
corn yielding, yield-weather model, climate change
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original in:
Polish
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