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vol. 19, nr. 1 (2012)
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Description and analysis of Palmer drought severity index in Poland in 1901-2000
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Józef Paszczyk, Zdzisław Michalczyk
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Department of Hydrology, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University Al. Kraśnicka 2CD, 20-718 Lublin |
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vol. 19 (2012), nr. 1,
pp. 89-110
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abstract:
The paper presents an attempt at evaluation of moisture state in Poland in 1901-2000, expressed as modified Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). Data of Climatic Research Unit database, sorted as regular structure of geographical grid nodes with 0.5o latitude and longitude resolution, were used. They were analysed using various methods and statistical techniques. They were used for numeric description of the spatial and temporal diversity of drought phenomenon – expressed as PSDI. In the examined century, southern and central areas of Poland were endangered by droughts more significantly, however, the phenomenon of strong drought was observed in the western part of the country. In the first half-century, rising tendencies of droughts were observed in the central zone of the coast of the Baltic Sea, in Pomeranian Lake District and eastern areas of Mazury Lake District, in Roztocze, and Lublin Upland. Thus, in the second half-century, intensification of drought was observed in south-eastern and central regions of Poland, however for the whole century it was characteristic for the almost the whole of Poland. In most cases, average precipitation decreased due to geographical latitude, and temperatures – due to geographical longitude. Periods of 11-12 and 35 years were the dominant rhythm of fluctuations of PSDI (40% of observed cases). Intensity of drought, in the case of zonal circulation development, was distinctly decreased to the northern and north-eastern direction in Poland, and in the period of its weakening it does not show any distinct direction.
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keywords:
Palmer Drought Severity Indices, drought, drought in Poland
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original in:
Polish
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